Israelis Vote in 120-Seat Knesset Race as Polls Show a Dead Heat

Benjamin Netanyahu has held the Israeli premiership for 19 of the last 30 years, making the upcoming election less a traditional ideological battle and more a direct referendum on his leadership. Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday to fill all 120 seats in the Knesset, with current polling indicating a tight race between pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps.

Gadi Eisenkot leads the opposition ticket as the former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff. Eisenkot entered politics only four years ago and runs under the Yashar banner, which translates to straight or direct. He has proposed US-style term limits for prime ministers, arguing that power corrupts. At a recent rally in Modi'in, supporters praised his direct style. Noa Sadeh, a 56-year-old attendee, said she is tired of politicians who know how to talk and wants a leader who focuses on doing the work.

The opposition bloc includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom are from the nationalist right and previously worked with Netanyahu before falling out with him. On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party is also campaigning against the current prime minister. Yishai Fleisher of that party told voters in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu drifts left and must be pulled right. He advocated for more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, the death penalty, and more weapons for Jewish civilians.

Netanyahu has framed the election as a choice between the right and Palestine. His campaign posters place opposition leaders alongside heads of parties representing Palestinian citizens, who make up about a fifth of the population. The closing weeks focused on whether Jewish anti-Netanyahu parties, who are forecast to outpoll his bloc but lack a majority, would rely on mainly Arab parties. Pro-Netanyahu media, including Channel 14, have kept his opponents on the defensive. One exception occurred when Channel 14 host Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan monkey. Eisenkot did not repeat the slur at his rally, a move admirers viewed as restraint and doubters saw as a lack of grasp on the opponent.

The close race puzzles many observers given the events of the past few years. The deadliest attack in Israel's history occurred on October 7, 2023, under Netanyahu's watch. The subsequent war in Gaza killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, with Israel stating that a third were Hamas combatants. The war did not eradicate Hamas, and Iran's nuclear threat remains. Netanyahu also faces fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court, the Qatargate affair, and an ongoing corruption trial. Oded Levi, who voted for Netanyahu in 2022 but attended an Eisenkot rally, said whoever was prime minister then is responsible.

Netanyahu's durability relies on a loyal base built over three decades. His allies maintain that army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark about the October 7 attack, a claim observers call unfounded. Many expect Netanyahu to outmaneuver rivals in coalition talks following the vote. Opposition hopes also rest on liberal, secular expatriate Israelis flying home to vote. This group is not captured by standard pollsters and could determine the outcome if the race turns on a single seat.

On Thursday, a state ceremony marked the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu stayed away and sent a low-ranking minister. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats and a former general, said he is optimistic about the opposition agreeing on a regional strategic process for long-term security, though he avoided using the words peace process. The word peace has been tainted for many Israelis but has not vanished. A video shared widely this week showed young Israelis at a Negev music festival singing Shir LaShalom, the song Rabin sang before he was shot 31 years ago.