Satellites Detect 9,000 Hectares of Poppy Expansion in Pakistan
British analysis suggests Afghan growers are moving into Balochistan to bypass the Taliban's narcotics ban.
By Pedro Barnes ·
David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan’s illicit drug trade, reported that satellite imagery reveals more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The data comes from a report by Alcis, a British firm, which combined satellite assessments with interviews of local farmers. Mansfield stated that this expansion has turned the borderlands of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran into a major center for opium production.
The shift follows a sharp decline in Afghan opium output after the Taliban banned illicit narcotics in 2022. Although the ban reduced production, it did not eliminate cultivation. Mansfield argued that the ban, along with instability in the tri-border region, pushed farming activities across the border. He noted that most of the new growth in Pakistan is concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah.
Local officials and farmers describe a complex dynamic of enforcement and evasion. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, claimed that senior military officials and political brokers back the cultivation and take commissions. Monawar Hussain, the district’s chief administrative officer, disputed this, stating that cultivation dropped after an eradication campaign last year. However, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows little evidence of widespread eradication.
Farmers say economic pressure drives the change. Lala Jan Kakar, a resident of Killa Abdullah, noted that drought and insecurity have hurt traditional fruit farming. He explained that the demand and income from poppies exceed those of other crops. He added that Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand lease land in Balochistan, bringing capital and expertise. These growers invest in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners.
The pattern is not limited to Pakistan. Similar cultivation has emerged in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province and other regions such as Razavi Khorasan and Kermanshah. Afghan farmers operate there as tenants and sharecroppers. Satellite images from 2026 show extensive fields using drip irrigation, a costly method that suggests growers expected the crops to survive. Mansfield described the agricultural change as a move from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture.
Pakistan’s Interior Ministry and the provincial government did not respond to requests for comment. Islamabad has denied reports of widespread opium cultivation and asserts that found crops are destroyed. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that opium production in Pakistan remains marginal, though it acknowledges data points to spillover effects from Afghanistan.
Mansfield expects cultivation levels to rise further in 2027. He cited the doubling of cultivated land in 2026 as a strong indicator of future growth. He warned that increased production could boost heroin supplies and generate income for armed groups competing for tax revenues in the region.
