Analysts predict deadlier U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran after midterms

U.S. and Israeli leaders are expected to resume military operations against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, according to analysts who describe the anticipated third round of fighting as potentially the most destructive to date. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official now with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war appears almost inevitable once the ballots are counted.

The conflict has already unfolded in two distinct phases over the last 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, lasting 12 days before a fragile ceasefire ended the fighting. The second phase started in February following a massive U.S. military buildup, marked by Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz projects that the next wave of hostilities will focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and subsea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also suggested that Iran might deploy portions of its land army for limited attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, where U.S. bases are located, in an effort to hurt the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, direct strikes have remained limited, but economic pressure has increased. The United States has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms, claiming the country was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that these attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Iranian officials seek sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have struggled to restart negotiations. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has strengthened the revolutionary ideology within Iran's leadership, increasing the likelihood of retaliation by proxies such as the Houthis and Hezbollah against economic sites like airports.

The human cost of the conflict continues to rise. Western non-governmental organizations report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have also been killed, with additional deaths recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it remains unclear whether President Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated he intends to "finish the job" of bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days, which Citrinowicz believes could help Netanyahu form an emergency unity government if the crisis widens. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that diplomacy is not dead but has been constrained by Trump's maximalist goals. Sadjadpour argued that Iran would only compromise under severe economic pressure combined with a clear diplomatic exit, stating, "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed."