Arab bloc poised to decide Israel's next government after vote surge

Approximately 840,000 Palestinian Israelis cast ballots in the recent elections, a figure that reflects a turnout rate of about 80% among the community. This level of participation is more than double the previous standard and has shifted the balance of power in the 120-seat Knesset. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, stated that the party is prepared to work with the Change bloc to remove the current far-right government. The Joint List holds 11 seats, while the more conservative Islamist party Ra’am holds eight, placing the Arab parties in a decisive position.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition lost its majority, falling from 68 seats to 53. The Change bloc, led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot, secured 48 seats. Because no single grouping commands a clear claim to power, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog is expected to summon political leaders as early as Wednesday. His goal is to gather recommendations on which leader should be given the first opportunity to form the next government. The coming days are expected to be critical for determining the direction of Israeli leadership.

Jabareen told The Guardian that the primary demand of Arab voters was to end the tenure of the Netanyahu government. He specifically cited the national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and the finance minister Bezalel Smotrich as targets of this effort. He described the past four years as dangerous, pointing to house demolitions, police brutality, and a lack of resources for municipalities and education in the Arab community. He noted that physical attacks against Arabs and racism persisted across all areas of life during this period.

Eisenkot has pledged not to form a unity government with Netanyahu but has set conditions for any coalition with Arab parties. These conditions include recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, accepting conscription, and denouncing Hamas as a terrorist organization. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, has signaled readiness to join such a coalition. Jabareen stated that the Joint List does not intend to join the government but is prepared to support it from the outside through tactical voting in the Knesset.

Speaking at his family home in Umm al-Fahm, Jabareen explained that the conditions for coalition membership are less relevant to parties remaining in opposition. He argued that as long as the occupation in the West Bank continues, the Joint List cannot be part of the government. However, he said the party sees this as a chance to change policies and attitudes toward the Arab community and the Palestinian people. He described the current moment as historic and hoped for partners in the opposition to move forward with these changes.

Forming a new government faces obstacles, including the need for the Change bloc to agree on a prime ministerial candidate. They must also accept partnership with Arab parties, a move opposed by right-wing leader Avigdor Lieberman. It remains unclear if Lieberman’s resistance is based on principle or a desire for a top cabinet position. Jabareen, a 54-year-old former law professor and leader of the socialist Hadash party, has not yet spoken directly with Eisenkot, though informal discussions are under way.

Jabareen argued that the 67 opponents of Netanyahu could use their majority to take control of legislative power immediately. This would involve changing the speaker of the Knesset and taking over the committee that oversees the legislative agenda. He said this could happen before a full coalition is formed. A priority for the new Knesset would be to repeal laws that infringed on the independence of the judiciary.

Jabareen expressed concern that Netanyahu might use a resumption of war with Iran, potentially alongside Donald Trump, to delay political transition. He said the opposition needs a clear voice to counter any attempt by the prime minister to initiate war or dictate a new military agenda. Netanyahu has alleged without evidence that Arab parties used illegal Qatari funds, a claim Jabareen dismissed as dangerous incitement aimed at delegitimizing Arab political power.