Cost of living and war drive voters to doubt Republican incumbents
Trump is campaigning in traditionally safe states as tariffs and the Iran conflict fuel inflation.
By Leila Reynolds ·
American consumers face higher prices for basic goods as they approach the November elections. A joint American and Israeli strike killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, causing gas prices to spike to a record high for this late in the year. The New York Federal Reserve confirmed that new tariffs drove inflation up, noting that prices would have fallen without them.
President Donald Trump is campaigning in Mississippi this week to support Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The state gave Trump 61% of the vote in 2024 and has not elected a Democratic senator since the movie E.T. was released. Trump told supporters, “I’m here because Cindy’s doing great, but I just got to make sure. I can’t take a chance.”
RealClearPolitics polling averages show Trump’s approval rating sitting at 40%. About 60% of Americans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction. Republicans are expected to lose control of the House of Representatives. The Georgia Senate race, once a potential flip for Democrats, now appears out of reach for them.
Other Republican-held seats in Texas, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Kansas appear vulnerable. Trump has scheduled stops in those states as well. Media figures Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have broken with Trump over the Iran war. The conflict undercuts the campaign promise to avoid starting more endless wars.
The administration has taken equity stakes in at least 40 American companies in the past two years. Ohio Senator John Husted introduced legislation to limit government equity holdings to eight years. Critics argue this limit is still too long. Trump has also spent time renaming government entities and geographic locations, such as changing the Department of Defense to the Department of War.
Polls identify affordability as the top issue for voters. Republicans have spent two years imposing tariffs and starting a war that has raised costs. Democrats are not known for sound money policies, but the Republican majority has not acted as a check on executive power. The administration’s economic decisions have weakened the case for reelection.
Trump’s campaign stops in strongholds like Mississippi suggest the party is playing defense. If Republicans lose their House majority, the result will reflect their own policy choices. The midterm elections will test whether voters blame the party in power for high prices and a new war.
