Texas Senate Race Hovers Within Margin of Error as Election Day Nears
Paxton and Talarico battle for control of key suburban and border counties, with early voting data showing historic shifts in Hispanic turnout.
By Pedro Barnes ·
The margin between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and state legislator James Talarico falls within the polling margin of error as the state prepares for Tuesday’s election. The two candidates have spent the final weeks traveling across the state to mobilize supporters and attack each other’s qualifications. The outcome will likely hinge on specific demographic shifts and regional turnout patterns rather than broad statewide trends.
The path to this close race involves a decade of changing voter alignments. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke lost the state by 2.6 percentage points. By 2024, Donald Trump carried Cameron, Hidalgo, and Webb counties, a first for a Republican presidential nominee in decades. Starr County, which is 97% Latino, swung 76 percentage points toward Trump compared to 2016. These gains created a higher baseline for Republicans in South Texas, a region where early voting this year already exceeds 2024 presidential levels in Hidalgo, Starr, and Webb counties.
Demographic data indicates a surge in Hispanic participation statewide. Hispanic voters comprised 19% of the early electorate, up from 16% in 2022 and 17% in 2024. This increase is critical because Latino voters make up more than 30% of Texas’ eligible electorate. Talarico needs to beat Colin Allred’s 2024 performance in Bexar and El Paso counties, where the Democrat won 55.6% and 57.9% respectively. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties will be decisive. These three counties accounted for nearly 16% of the statewide vote in 2024. They voted for Trump by margins of 5, 11, and 13 points, making them more Democratic than the state average.
Harris County remains a barrier for Talarico. No Democratic Senate candidate has surpassed 58% of the vote there since O’Rourke in 2018. Talarico announced a $25 million Black voter turnout initiative in September after performing poorly with Black voters in the primary. He needs to cross the 60% threshold to offset Republican margins elsewhere. Early voting in Harris County shows a 39% turnout rate, significantly higher than the 29% recorded in 2022. The county’s voter rolls have grown by more than 17% since 2018, adding weight to its final tally.
Rural counties, traditionally a Republican stronghold, are showing signs of frustration over data centers and water access. Ted Cruz won more than 80% of the vote in 104 counties in 2024. Voters in Hale, Hood, Fisher, Navarro, Briscoe, Carson, and Shackelford counties are watching closely due to local data center projects. If Paxton holds margins close to Cruz’s 2024 numbers, he gains an advantage. If Talarico runs ahead of Allred’s 2024 results in these areas, it could narrow the statewide gap.
Libertarian candidate Ted Brown is polling between 1% and 3%, attracting more independents and Republicans than Democrats. In 2024, Brown received 2.4% of the Senate vote. Some conservative voters are also skipping the race entirely in protest of Paxton, while voting for Governor Greg Abbott. Linda Misenheimer, a 72-year-old independent from El Paso, left the Senate line blank on her early ballot. She described Talarico as too liberal and Paxton as too loyal to the party over constituents. She stated she could not vote for any of the three candidates in good conscience.
