Pulido Leads in Redrawn Texas District as Border Costs Bite

The Rio Grande Valley, a region that delivered Donald Trump a record 55% of Hispanic votes in 2024, is currently polling five to six points for Democrats. This shift defies the 18-point Republican majority established when Texas officials redrew the congressional map in 2025. With the midterm election scheduled for November 3, the district has become a barometer for whether border voters are returning to the party of their predecessors.

The trajectory began with Trump’s 2024 campaign, where he pledged to end illegal crossings. Under former President Joe Biden, the area recorded over 2.5 million apprehensions in a single year. Trump’s administration has since reduced crossings to their lowest level in decades, a result that helped secure his historic showing among Texas Hispanics. However, recent surveys indicate that much of that support has eroded since late summer.

The economic strain of the border crackdown is reshaping local sentiment. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who voted for Trump three times, plans to vote Democrat in November. He cited a lack of clarity regarding the administration's reach and noted that an acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers has dwindled to four or six. Guerrero’s experience reflects a distinction many residents draw between securing the border and the methods used to do so.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions have become a focal point for local criticism. In July 2026, Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide, the highest share of any state according to the Deportation Data Project. Father Roy Snipes, a priest who has served a chapel near the river for nearly 50 years, told a congregation of about 30 people that there is no good excuse to detain and deport neighbors. He had previously resisted plans to seize his church’s land for a border wall during Trump’s first term.

Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has capitalized on these local grievances. He has avoided national party branding, instead focusing on the cost of living. "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," he said. Voters at a local avocado festival echoed this sentiment, with Dave Baldwin blaming the president for rising prices and asserting that the administration is not doing a good job controlling their destiny.

Republican officials acknowledge the growing headwinds. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, expects a tough race but credits the administration with securing the border. He noted that while most people accept deporting criminals, the problem begins with deporting productive, law-abiding citizens. Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant, observed that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents, making the race dependent on turnout rather than party loyalty.

The outcome of this district could have implications beyond the House seat. If the polls hold, a modest swing back to Democrats could put a US Senate seat in play, a position the party has not won in Texas in more than 30 years. Republican Tano Tijerina, running in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real, even as he credited Trump with breaking through barriers. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as purely a game of turnout.

The district's polling data suggests the 2024 shift was not permanent. Despite the map being drawn to favor Republicans, the current numbers favor Pulido. The race will hinge on whether the economic impact of border enforcement continues to drive Hispanic voters away from the GOP, or if the lower crossing numbers secure a Republican hold.